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That's why strikeouts are pretty much the same as a ground out

Runners can advance/score on batted balls.

This matrix basically shows your argument is correct.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204022

But once again it come down to situation. If I need a run and have no outs and a guy on first, I'm gonna take away the DP by moving the guy over. Or I want to avoid a lefty-lefty matchup with RISP. Or move a guy to third so I can get a fly ball hitter to the plate w/ less than two outs. There's infinite scenarios where giving up an out makes sense.

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I think a hit-and-run is 95% of the time better than a simple bunt.

Most definitely, the risk-reward there is high though. Plus you need a dude on the bases who is capable of swiping one and a guy at the plate who is capable of at least contacting anything thrown. But when executed properly, damn is it pretty.

The Cards tried one last nite in Milwaukee and it resulted in the batter literally throwing his bat at a bad pitch and Pujols being out at second by 50 ft.

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I think a hit-and-run is 95% of the time better than a simple bunt.

Most definitely, the risk-reward there is high though. Plus you need a dude on the bases who is capable of swiping one and a guy at the plate who is capable of at least contacting anything thrown. But when executed properly, damn is it pretty.

The Cards tried one last nite in Milwaukee and it resulted in the batter literally throwing his bat at a bad pitch and Pujols being out at second by 50 ft.

Which happens but to me I just think giving away outs is something to be done only in very specific situations. I think being able to put a ball in play is a skill and striking out often shows a lack of something, what I don't know.

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Most definitely, the risk-reward there is high though. Plus you need a dude on the bases who is capable of swiping one and a guy at the plate who is capable of at least contacting anything thrown. But when executed properly, damn is it pretty.

The Cards tried one last nite in Milwaukee and it resulted in the batter literally throwing his bat at a bad pitch and Pujols being out at second by 50 ft.

Which happens but to me I just think giving away outs is something to be done only in very specific situations. I think being able to put a ball in play is a skill and striking out often shows a lack of something, what I don't know.

I'm really surprised more teams don't do it, especially with soft hitters at the plate, it takes away the double play and easily scores/moves a guy to third on anything to the OF. It is a MASSIVE rally killer to hit into the DP or the K-CS double play.

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Statistically speaking there's no such thing as a productive out. That's why strikeouts are pretty much the same as a ground out, MLB baseball players are extremely unlikely to boot regular ol' groundballs.

All outs are statistically the same save for maybe a sac fly.

i'd have to disagree. let's say you have a runner on 2nd with none out. batter grounds out and moves the runner to third. now you have a runner on 3rd with one out. that runner is much more likely to score from 3rd than second. there's something like 9 different ways a runner can score from third (i don't remember them all).

obviously you'd prefer your batter to hit safely with runners on base. but moving a guy into scoring position or from 2nd to third is much better than striking out or popping out.

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There are situations where you can give-up an out and have it work out well for you. But that's not the point I'm arguing. The point I'm arguing is most batters have at least a 35% chance of getting on base. And that chance, in the end, will score you more runs than giving up an out to get a runner to third. Plus, there are much better ways to move him over than conceding an out. That's really the crux of it, there's almost never a good reason to concede an out.

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Merely getting on base with runners on does not imply success at improving a team's chance at scoring. You can get on base via a walk or fielder's choice which can actually take away a scoring chance by eliminating the lead runner or setting up a force play. Historically, MLB's batting average is about .265 and OBP is .335 (http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/bat.shtml) meaning there is a little bit better than a 1 in 4 chance of moving the runner without reducing run expectancy.

I can't find a statistic for it, but I'd be willing to bet that sacrifices are executed successfully at least 50% of the time.

But, like always it depends on matchups and situations, you want to play to your player's strengths, and sometimes that means giving up outs for more preferable matchups.

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I'm not going to do the statistical projections but I would take 33.5% chance of getting two men thus creating an even higher percent chance to score than 50% and a guarantee of an extra out, that's just me. Call it big ball if you want but "putting pressure on the defense" doesn't exist much at the major league level.

You build a team to better you chances to score runs and to me that's building a team with a high collective on-base percentage, speed, and power. Doing that means getting more runners on works even better for you.

Fact is, you get the sac down probably 80% of the time but 99% of the time you get the out and then you've got a guy on second or third with one more out. I would be willing to bet if you factored in the percent of scoring after that out is made wherever the runner is and compared it to the percent of time you could get another guy on base without an out you'd see good things. You'd see, I'm guessing, you'd score more runs over the course of a season.

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I'm not going to do the statistical projections but I would take 33.5% chance of getting two men thus creating an even higher percent chance to score than 50% and a guarantee of an extra out, that's just me. Call it big ball if you want but "putting pressure on the defense" doesn't exist much at the major league level.

This, or at least something like this has been done. I'm pretty sure there's a chapter about it in the baseball prospectus book "Baseball by the Numbers", but it might be somewhere else. It's only really productive to bunt a player to third if 1) your batter is REALLY bad (see: pitcher) or 2) if you're only playing for one run. I think your odds of scoring a single run goes up by bunting over, but you are basically trading a big inning for a run, so it only really makes sense if you're down a run/tied.

Also, after watching AL ball for years, then watching NL ball for the last four, it's way better w/out the DH. There's so much more strategy and it's always enjoyable when pitchers get hits. And to address the idea of hitters in the NL being used to hitting vs. the AL when they don't, there's barely a difference, they both stink. There may be a few good hitting pitchers, but most of them are terrible and it's definately an advantage to having a set in stone DH rather than playing some sort of utility guy or 4th OF in the DH spot as the NL teams have to.

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I'm amazed that the Cubs took 2/3 from LA. Pretty happy with that, seeing how they've been playing lately.

They actually split a 4 game set. All in all it looked like an eve 4 games, 2 close games, 2 blowouts, one for each team.

I think the Cubs haven't realized there are now 3 teams in their division that can compete with them now.

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a lot of cubs fans are alright writing them off already, but i'm not worried. i think they're going to have a good season. milton bradley and giovanny soto have had really slow starts but are showing signs of improvement. plus aramis ramirez's injury isn't helping. i still don't understand the off season moves the cubs made, getting rid of mark derosa (who had 80+ RBIs and now already has 30+) and jason marquis who is tied with johan santana for most wins in the NL. also i was always a huge kerry wood advocate. i dunno if they're gonna be able to compete with the cardinals this year though, pujols is probably the best offensive player in baseball and chris carpenter is so nasty right now.

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a lot of cubs fans are alright writing them off already, but i'm not worried. i think they're going to have a good season. milton bradley and giovanny soto have had really slow starts but are showing signs of improvement. plus aramis ramirez's injury isn't helping. i still don't understand the off season moves the cubs made, getting rid of mark derosa (who had 80+ RBIs and now already has 30+) and jason marquis who is tied with johan santana for most wins in the NL. also i was always a huge kerry wood advocate. i dunno if they're gonna be able to compete with the cardinals this year though, pujols is probably the best offensive player in baseball and chris carpenter is so nasty right now.

I can't believe they signed Bradley to be a full-time starting outfielder, his entire career has been on and off the DL, why would that change now?

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yeah i dunno. i mean, he's had good streaks some seasons. he's definitely a gamble but i'd rather have him in the outfield than a washed up jim edmonds

Wth Bradley slumping (although hes picking it up as of late) Kosuke playing the Kosuke of the 1st half of 2008 is huge, expeicially with Ramirez out. If he stops hitting, things could get real shitty, real fast.

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They've got so many people they can put in the outfield that if Bradly gets really bad they've got some options. I like Reed Johnson a lot, and he's a more consistent (although not as dangerous) hitter than Bradley.

Fukudome needs to keep this up, and once Harden and Aramis get back hopefully there will be a little surge.

Someone please take Soriano from us. I'm fucking sick of him striking out 3 times a game and then hitting a game winning home run, allowing him to keep his job. Dude should not be a starter.

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