thebiglebowski Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I haven't thought through every mathematical detail. Let's say there are two identical teams who play each other for 162 games, except one center fielder is a 5 WAR player and the other is a 0 WAR player. Theoretically, one team should win 5 more games and the other should lose those 5 games. Do they really, though? It might be as simple as calculating the weighted average of the WARs for the entire team based on the lineups played each day for the entire year, then seeing how much variance there would be from the expected value of their 162 game W-L record. However it's done, there should be some way to validate know who played on every single day and their WAR ratings how well that correlated to actual wins for games already played. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sacredheart Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I haven't thought through every mathematical detail. Let's say there are two identical teams who play each other for 162 games, except one center fielder is a 5 WAR player and the other is a 0 WAR player. Theoretically, one team should win 5 more games and the other should lose those 5 games. Do they really, though? It might be as simple as calculating the weighted average of the WARs for the entire team based on the lineups played each day for the entire year, then seeing how much variance there would be from the expected value of their 162 game W-L record. However it's done, there should be some way to validate know who played on every single day and their WAR ratings how well that correlated to actual wins for games already played. I think you are looking at WAR to mean more than it really is. It often gets touted as the end all be all stat, but it really is just a counting stat that tries to begin a conversation about who performed better than who. It isnt anything close to being a concrete stat. That is why you can see Matt Cain have a 0.1 WAR for last year on Baseball Reference, and a -0.3 WAR on fangraphs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I disagree. If a stat is going to be used as an all-encompassing assessment of player player, it should correlate really strongly with how often a team actually wins games when assessed on a team level. When talking statistical models, it's about finding the model that best fits the data, not the one that perfectly matches. That goes without saying. The difference in WAR between different sites could be an opportunity to show that FGs has a better WAR calculation, which would probably be something good for Chamb to publish. Just spitballing ideas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
distinctlydustin Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 My body is ready for baseball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHOSTDRONES Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Opening day this year... going Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Going and taking the following day off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 the Yankees are retiring Pettite, an admitted cheater? oh man, this could be good. question, did St Louis retire McGuires number yet? or Sosa with the Cubs? I know they're not admitted PED/HGH users, but are there any admitted HGH/PED users whose numbers are retired by their club? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 McGwire has admitted to using steroids Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Family Friendly Rap God Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 the Yankees are retiring Pettite, an admitted cheater? oh man, this could be good. question, did St Louis retire McGuires number yet? or Sosa with the Cubs? I know they're not admitted PED/HGH users, but are there any admitted HGH/PED users whose numbers are retired by their club? Is HGH considered PED's now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHOSTDRONES Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Is HGH considered PED's now? It has been for quite a while now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Is HGH considered PED's now? yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sacredheart Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 the Yankees are retiring Pettite, an admitted cheater? oh man, this could be good. question, did St Louis retire McGuires number yet? or Sosa with the Cubs? I know they're not admitted PED/HGH users, but are there any admitted HGH/PED users whose numbers are retired by their club? I love the irony of this and what they are doing to A-Rod. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Family Friendly Rap God Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 It has been for quite a while now I guess I don't rank them the same as far as severity of cheating. They both obviously skirting the rules, but isn't HGH used to aid on recovery times? I've never heard of it being used to boost production like steroids. This could be why the Yanks are treating ARod and Pettitte differently. That and Pettitte being a member of the Core Four. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHOSTDRONES Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I guess I don't rank them the same as far as severity of cheating. They both obviously skirting the rules, but isn't HGH used to aid on recovery times? I've never heard of it being used to boost production like steroids. This could be why the Yanks are treating ARod and Pettitte differently. That and Pettitte being a member of the Core Four. HGH can cause freakish development of body parts... see Barry Bonds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHOSTDRONES Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I guess I don't rank them the same as far as severity of cheating. They both obviously skirting the rules, but isn't HGH used to aid on recovery times? I've never heard of it being used to boost production like steroids. This could be why the Yanks are treating ARod and Pettitte differently. That and Pettitte being a member of the Core Four. More seriously, faster recovery is cheating. 162 games a year can take an exacting toll on the human body. Both HGH and steroids are medically used to aid in recovery of injuries. Taking both on a routine basis can reduce the wear and tear on the body during a long competitive season, giving the abuser an advantage over someone not using. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yeah you don't have to look like the hulk to be getting competitive advantages from steroids (Braun, Jhonny Peralta, Everth Cabrera). Quicker recovery = more workouts/training = increased strength, lower fat, and more practice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I guess I don't rank them the same as far as severity of cheating. They both obviously skirting the rules, but isn't HGH used to aid on recovery times? I've never heard of it being used to boost production like steroids. This could be why the Yanks are treating ARod and Pettitte differently. That and Pettitte being a member of the Core Four. the whole mitchell report was about Steroids/HGH abuse. Pettite admitted to using HGH. HGH is far worse than anything Arod did. Canseco's book was about steroids/HGH use, and the entire 90's/2000's era of Homerun baseball is completely tainted by HGH use. Its cheating to the nth degree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHOSTDRONES Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 the whole mitchell report was about Steroids/HGH abuse. Pettite admitted to using HGH. HGH is far worse than anything Arod did. Canseco's book was about steroids/HGH use, and the entire 90's/2000's era of Homerun baseball is completely tainted by HGH use. Its cheating to the nth degree. ARod was a pusher for that company and still does not apologize. That's the difference. Though Pettite was wrong and should not have that number retired, he is less reviled as an individual because A. His apology seemed sincere and B. He was not a glorified drug dealer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sacredheart Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I dont think anyone is hating on A-Rod because he was a "pusher" for the company. They hate him because he always acts smug, doesnt apoligize, and lies about it until he is caught again. There also is the resentment that A-Rod doesnt need to take it, he was already on a HoF career path before he joined Texas and he just pissed his career away so he could get marginally better (considering he was already one of the best in the game at the time). I still dont get the whole A-Rod and Bonds getting as crucified as they have been, while other cheaters like Braun actually lied so much they ruined a man's career and reputation, but gets welcomed back openly. In my opinion, it is foolish to think that Pettite wasnt a pusher. Anyone in a clubhouse who was taking stuff was most likely telling another teammate in private about it, how it helps them, and how to get it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHOSTDRONES Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I dont think anyone is hating on A-Rod because he was a "pusher" for the company. They hate him because he always acts smug, doesnt apoligize, and lies about it until he is caught again. There also is the resentment that A-Rod doesnt need to take it, he was already on a HoF career path before he joined Texas and he just pissed his career away so he could get marginally better (considering he was already one of the best in the game at the time). I still dont get the whole A-Rod and Bonds getting as crucified as they have been, while other cheaters like Braun actually lied so much they ruined a man's career and reputation, but gets welcomed back openly. In my opinion, it is foolish to think that Pettite wasnt a pusher. Anyone in a clubhouse who was taking stuff was most likely telling another teammate in private about it, how it helps them, and how to get it. While that may be true of any using athlete, there is real evidence that ARod was recruiting for Biogenesis. So, in his case, it isn't just hearsay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Family Friendly Rap God Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I dont think anyone is hating on A-Rod because he was a "pusher" for the company. They hate him because he always acts smug, doesnt apoligize, and lies about it until he is caught again. There also is the resentment that A-Rod doesnt need to take it, he was already on a HoF career path before he joined Texas and he just pissed his career away so he could get marginally better (considering he was already one of the best in the game at the time). I still dont get the whole A-Rod and Bonds getting as crucified as they have been, while other cheaters like Braun actually lied so much they ruined a man's career and reputation, but gets welcomed back openly. In my opinion, it is foolish to think that Pettite wasnt a pusher. Anyone in a clubhouse who was taking stuff was most likely telling another teammate in private about it, how it helps them, and how to get it. His demeanor has always been off putting. He honestly was fully accepted as a Yank until he finally came through in the WS that year and even then he was still looked at like a narcissistic wierdo. He was worth that first contract but this second one was a major mistake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I dont think anyone is hating on A-Rod because he was a "pusher" for the company. They hate him because he always acts smug, doesnt apoligize, and lies about it until he is caught again. There also is the resentment that A-Rod doesnt need to take it, he was already on a HoF career path before he joined Texas and he just pissed his career away so he could get marginally better (considering he was already one of the best in the game at the time). I still dont get the whole A-Rod and Bonds getting as crucified as they have been, while other cheaters like Braun actually lied so much they ruined a man's career and reputation, but gets welcomed back openly. In my opinion, it is foolish to think that Pettite wasnt a pusher. Anyone in a clubhouse who was taking stuff was most likely telling another teammate in private about it, how it helps them, and how to get it. who is saying Braun has been welcomed back openly? Im pretty sure everyone boo'd him last year any chance they got, and took shots at him during his slump/injury, too. Lets not forget, he did admit it, 1 1/2 years later... lol, but he didnt lie to Congress like Bonds or Clemens or McGuire or Palmero... yikes. That was embarrassing to watch. the way the league propped up those players in the 90's/00's while they literally saved Baseball after the lockout, and crucified them for cheating after the fact and bar them from the HOF is unreal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Aaaand arod issued a hamdwritten apology to the fans today lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayoroftelevision Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Happy Spring Training Day, everyone!The pitchers and catchers for my team aren't reporting today, but I'm still so damn happy it's finally back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHOSTDRONES Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 We're back! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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