distinctlydustin Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Just keep batters in the box. No need for a pitch clock. I don't care either way about the shifts; I just find it pointless. You either like baseball or you don't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catalinacaper Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I mean, he also says he wants to see MLB franchises in other countries... So maybe face value isn't the way to take those comments Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paintedinexile Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Just keep batters in the box. No need for a pitch clock. I don't care either way about the shifts; I just find it pointless. You either like baseball or you don't. I agree. While there are some pitchers who like to take their time, I'm more upset about batters who have to step outside of the box and adjust their equipment after every pitch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I'm wondering if we'll see a pitcher blame his torn ucl on being forced to rush pitches eventually Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoshotthefrog Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I agree. While there are some pitchers who like to take their time, I'm more upset about batters who have to step outside of the box and adjust their equipment after every pitch. Ortiz, Utley, and Rendon are good examples of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 a pitch clock eliminates both pitchers taking their time and batters stepping out of the box because the pitcher has to set on the mound and start their delivery. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Fantasy baseball open. Mock drafts coming out. I have gone from 6 o'clock to 12 calltoarmssoia 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Fantasy baseball open. Mock drafts coming out. I have gone from 6 o'clock to 12 Soooo pumpeddddddd calltoarmssoia 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iuneki Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 TBH I agree Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Family Friendly Rap God Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I agree. While there are some pitchers who like to take their time, I'm more upset about batters who have to step outside of the box and adjust their equipment after every pitch. Well luckily one of the worst offenders just retired (Jeter) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chamb117 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 i will be writing for rotographs (at fangraphs) starting next week probably. the staff wants me to start in fantasy baseball analysis and maybe move my way over to the non-roto section of the site after i get my feet wet. anyway, i'm pretty jazzed and i wanted to share the news with someone. figured you guys might think it's cool, too (unless you hate FG, then pretend i wrote a different website name). maybe you can go read my stuff and leave mean, disparaging comments? some of the "analysis" on FG drives me crazy with how much it lacks real analysis, so i'm going to do my best to not be that guy. i do a lot of econometric/statistical analysis and am always open to researching new topics, so if you have questions that have been nagging you or whatever, let me know! i'm always down for new projects. sacredheart 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3arl Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 i will be writing for rotographs (at fangraphs) starting next week probably. the staff wants me to start in fantasy baseball analysis and maybe move my way over to the non-roto section of the site after i get my feet wet. anyway, i'm pretty jazzed and i wanted to share the news with someone. figured you guys might think it's cool, too (unless you hate FG, then pretend i wrote a different website name). maybe you can go read my stuff and leave mean, disparaging comments? some of the "analysis" on FG drives me crazy with how much it lacks real analysis, so i'm going to do my best to not be that guy. i do a lot of econometric/statistical analysis and am always open to researching new topics, so if you have questions that have been nagging you or whatever, let me know! i'm always down for new projects. That's awesome! Sports writing is something I have no experience in or credentials for, but writing about the Astros for a living would be a dream job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Awesome man! I've always wanted to do a simulation analysis of the way that managers craft their lineups. Who says your best player should hit 3/4? Maybe the right answer is to bat them leadoff so they get an extra 50 at-Bats that they otherwise wouldn't. I get the reason for going speed-contact-power 1-2-3, I just don't think i've ever seen any real analysis that backs it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chamb117 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 thanks guys! i've heard of (but not read) analysis that says the two-hole is the optimal spot. but i agree: i think you want your best player to bat first to maximize his late appearances. but i also understand slotting your top OBP guy first and your best contact/batting average hitter second, like batting miggy first and v-mart second (although in that instance those two are probably interchangeable), or something like that. the average home run nets around 1.4 runs scored, so a large majority of homers are solo shots. it's probably a little better for hitters in the heart of the order, but still, i don't know if it's worth passing up 50 additional PAs per spot up in the order from your best hitter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maneatingcow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's been a while but I remember reading a series of articles about how the 2 spot was the ideal spot. Think the articles were on Baseball Prospectus but I very well could be wrong about that. I know back in the day it lead to discussion at Brewerfan.net about how the ideal lineup should be 1. Weeks 2. Braun 3. Fielder. That extra 50 at bats a year for both Braun and Fielder would have lead to a moderate amount of additional runs scored. I've always liked the idea of having a leadoff hitter that is high OBP with an ability to fight off a ton of pitches. Weeks was an ideal leadoff hitter 5 years ago. High OBP to set the table for Braun and Fielder. He was always near the league lead in pitches seen per plate appearance. The 2 hitter should be your best most dynamic hitter. Braun was my ideal. 3 hitter should be your 2nd best hitter, ideally with a ton of power. Fielder was great in that role. But, eh, it's been a few years since I was super into baseball analytics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 how many more AB does the leadoff guy get vs the 3hole guy? Is it really any significant amount? Ive always thought who you have where in the first three really doesnt matter, as long as you have high OBP type batters (which is almost always the case). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maneatingcow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Each spot in the lineup that you move is an extra 50 at bats over the course of a season. So theoretically if you moved the 3 hitter to leadoff he would get about an extra 100 plate appearances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuzzersonKillwell Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Wait... so does that mean the guy in our VC Fantasy League is also a paid fantasy analyst. Will I get a handicap or something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lemongoat Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Each spot in the lineup that you move is an extra 50 at bats over the course of a season. So theoretically if you moved the 3 hitter to leadoff he would get about an extra 100 plate appearances. Thats not accurate. You'd be looking at the leadoff hitter getting 450 more PA's than the #9 hitter. I think you're looking at 16-18 PA's per spot in the lineup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chamb117 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Thats not accurate. You'd be looking at the leadoff hitter getting 450 more PA's than the #9 hitter. I think you're looking at 16-18 PA's per spot in the lineup. you're almost spot-on. pulled from espn (2014 stats only): 1st - 750 PAs on average 2nd - 732 (-18) 3rd - 716 (-16) 4th - 700 (-16) 5th - 684 (-16) 6th - 665 (-19) 7th - 647 (-18) 8th - 628 (-19) 9th - 608 (-20) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Another one -- has WAR been calibrated to match up with actual team wins/losses or is it just a theoretical formula? Another way to say it -- you give me the WAR rating of every player on a team (even those who play 1 game) for the last season, the days they are going to play, and the team schedule (so the WAR of every opposing player) -- with what confidence can I predict actual Win/Loss record of the team's when the games were played? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandonK Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 i will be writing for rotographs (at fangraphs) starting next week probably. the staff wants me to start in fantasy baseball analysis and maybe move my way over to the non-roto section of the site after i get my feet wet. anyway, i'm pretty jazzed and i wanted to share the news with someone. figured you guys might think it's cool, too (unless you hate FG, then pretend i wrote a different website name). maybe you can go read my stuff and leave mean, disparaging comments? some of the "analysis" on FG drives me crazy with how much it lacks real analysis, so i'm going to do my best to not be that guy. i do a lot of econometric/statistical analysis and am always open to researching new topics, so if you have questions that have been nagging you or whatever, let me know! i'm always down for new projects. Congrats! Look forward to reading your pieces Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chamb117 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Another one -- has WAR been calibrated to match up with actual team wins/losses or is it just a theoretical formula? Another way to say it -- you give me the WAR rating of every player on a team (even those who play 1 game) for the last season, the days they are going to play, and the team schedule (so the WAR of every opposing player) -- with what confidence can I predict actual Win/Loss record of the team's when the games were played? it's a theoretical formula that compares players rather than teams, so as far as i know, it is not calibrated to sync with actual team W-L records. i think there is naturally a fairly strong correlation between WAR and W-L records though as the better teams have better players, which is fairly obvious. i don't think 2014 WAR has much predictive value on 2015. it would be like trying to predict a player's performance without considering any kind of regression, diminishing/improving skills, etc. i know FG's WAR calculations for pitchers use FIP instead of ERA, for example, so there is some attempt to do that, but FIP isn't something that tracks year to year simply due to random variation. so this is all a long-winded way of saying: no, i don't think so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not asking about it's predictive power. I'm saying do some kind of a regression analysis or maximum likelihood model knowing every player's WAR and the outcome of the games to see how well it can be used to predict W-L records within a single season. Even better if you could compare multiple variations of WAR and show one is superior on a year to year basis. It would be a pain in the effing ass to calculate via spreadsheet manipulation or something like that. If you guys have an efficient database and scripting capability, I think you could do it without too much trouble. I almost want to do it.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catalinacaper Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not asking about it's predictive power. I'm saying do some kind of a regression analysis or maximum likelihood model knowing every player's WAR and the outcome of the games to see how well it can be used to predict W-L records within a single season. Even better if you could compare multiple variations of WAR and show one is superior on a year to year basis. It would be a pain in the effing ass to calculate via spreadsheet manipulation or something like that. If you guys have an efficient database and scripting capability, I think you could do it without too much trouble. I almost want to do it.. The calculation wouldn't be so hard compared to the challenge of getting 162 x 30 (4800 something?) lineups input and then doing the 2400 game comparisons. A lot of smaller calculations rather than one nice 650 PA calc for one player. To be clear you'd just be deciding who "should have won" each game based on total team WAR for that lineup that day using WAR as it was at the end of the season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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