sgoodcore Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 I always thought World War II got us out of the Great Depression. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntheman1 Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 That's what they want you to think Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mediocore Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 I always read that God sent his only begotten son -- Ronald Reagan -- to Earth so that He may rid the United States (and the world!) of the Great Depression through his acting. (As an encore, he would later go on to become President.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rtw88 Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 I always thought World War II got us out of the Great Depression. WWII and some good old fashioned communism. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgoodcore Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 I was wrong on the numbers, infrastructure returns $1.59 per dollar not a $1.43. So its better than I originally thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjaicomo Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 Stimulus is a bad idea. We will see in about 15 years. Such is the nature of politics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgoodcore Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 Stimulus is a bad idea. We will see in about 15 years. Such is the nature of politics. Care to elaborate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjaicomo Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 The entire theory behind the effectiveness of a stimulus package is rooted in the Keynesean economic model, which says that you can increase GDP by increasing government spending (among other things). This is certainly true in the short run (if the ^G is big enough - which is what a lot of the argument is presently about). The problem is that this is a shortrun model and in the medium run, it will cause an inflationary explosion. This is exactly what happened in the late 1960s and 1970s (after the government spending for the purpose of increasing GDP in the preceding decades). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgoodcore Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 If its not done right it causes inflation. Its still worth a shot though. If the government can pull out of boosting the economy at the right time to let the private sector take over, we're golden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntheman1 Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 Can you link to where the $1.59 came from? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntheman1 Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 If its not done right it causes inflation. Its still worth a shot though. If the government can pull out of boosting the economy at the right time to let the private sector take over, we're golden. Count me as skeptical that this will happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgoodcore Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 I found it! It was originally on Rachel Maddow's show. Check out page 4, there's a big table of return per dollar invested. www.economy.com/mark-zandi/documents/assissing-the-impact-of-the-fiscal-stimulus.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjaicomo Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 It will cause inflation either way. ps I can't stand Rachel Maddow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntheman1 Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 Does that article explain anywhere how those numbers are calculated? I did a quick skim through the paper, but couldn't find it. One thing to note, this article is detailing the 2008 Economic Stimulus, not the stimulus that is being debated right now. I'd be rather surprised if all of those calculations were still the same in our current situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntheman1 Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 This is an intersting post from Greg Mankiw back in December. It discusses how there is no real agreement on fiscal policy in this regard amongst economists: http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2008/12/fiscal-policy-puzzles.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgoodcore Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 It will cause inflation either way. ps I can't stand Rachel Maddow. That's not how I understand it. The inflationary pressure comes when the private sector has to compete with not only private sector entities but the government. If the government gets out with things on the rise but not at the peak the inflationary pressure is averted. But if you believe it causes inflation either way then inflation will happen no matter what and the government has nothing to lose. Does that article explain anywhere how those numbers are calculated? I did a quick skim through the paper, but couldn't find it. One thing to note, this article is detailing the 2008 Economic Stimulus, not the stimulus that is being debated right now. I'd be rather surprised if all of those calculations were still the same in our current situation. Not sure how things would change in the matter of a few months or so. I would imagine the numbers would stay relatively similar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjaicomo Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 No inflation will happen either way if the government steps in and implements stimulus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgoodcore Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 No inflation will happen either way if the government steps in and implements stimulus. So what's the alternative? I mean honestly, you let unemployment get up to 15%? You let things happen that may have the US economy in the shitter for decades? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rtw88 Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 No inflation will happen either way if the government steps in and implements stimulus. So what's the alternative? I mean honestly, you let unemployment get up to 15%? You let things happen that may have the US economy in the shitter for decades? Eventually everything will go back to equilibrium, but it's certainly going to get worse before it gets better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgoodcore Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 So how long are you going to wait on something you're assuming should happen? We're running out of UI benefits, social security is a mess, people are losing jobs left and right, and things generally stink. A leader doesn't just sit back and play a fiddle while it burns. He does intelligent things to help it along. Its easier to say just sit back and let it happen until you watch your family members lose their jobs and their homes and everything they've worked so hard for. And beyond all that, the US infrastructure is a mess. It needs work regardless of what's going on. That needs to happen unless you want more bridges collapsing. So its a moot point when it comes to stimulating or not. It needs to be done, people need to get paid. Seems like a match made in heaven. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rtw88 Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 Don't get me wrong. I totally feel for everyone who is losing their jobs and savings and whatnot. My dad pays for virtually all of my school bills, and he's lost 25% of his savings. It sucks hard and I know it. It just doesn't seem like any of the solutions that people are coming up with are going to do anything but put us in more debt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgoodcore Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 The idea is to go into debt in the short term, get people back to work, generating income, and then work a budget surplus. A surplus we had 8 short years ago. More people working = more taxes = more fed money + slightly higher taxes = budget surplus = lowering debt/deficit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntheman1 Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 Does that article explain anywhere how those numbers are calculated? I did a quick skim through the paper, but couldn't find it. One thing to note, this article is detailing the 2008 Economic Stimulus, not the stimulus that is being debated right now. I'd be rather surprised if all of those calculations were still the same in our current situation. Not sure how things would change in the matter of a few months or so. I would imagine the numbers would stay relatively similar. Well, his calculations would be well over a year old. Regardless, assuming that these calculations are correct, this would have to be extremely well-targeted projects that occur immediately and I am doubtful that the government can do either of those things well. I'll leave it at that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgoodcore Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 Not sure how things would change in the matter of a few months or so. I would imagine the numbers would stay relatively similar. Well, his calculations would be well over a year old. Regardless, assuming that these calculations are correct, this would have to be extremely well-targeted projects that occur immediately and I am doubtful that the government can do either of those things well. I'll leave it at that. Infrastructure investment and food stamps are two very broad, wide-reaching projects that are huge targets well within reach to hit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danthemjfan23 Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 My package could use some stimulation. seriously how did nobody comment on this? rest assured, martin, it didn't go unnoticed... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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