chamb117 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 wow, hamels really did get a shitload of doubles hit off him. up there with joe saunders. comparing the 2012 and 2013 lists, though, it's inconclusive. hiroki kuroda is in the top 10 in doubles allowed both years but was fine. jon lester is up there too, but i've always thought he's all wins and no WHIP. rick porcello is at the top for 2012 but improved in 2013, although not dramatically. saunders, sabathia at buehrle at the top of the 2013 list below hamels, but it still doesn't say much. i don't know. i also acknowledge it's a small sample size and i was too lazy to look beyond 2012. doesn't matter to me because i wasn't targeting hamels anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoshotthefrog Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I have never heard that about pitchers at all. Someone who has been in the league as long as Hamels has and stayed in the same hitters park the entire time is not going to have a huge increase in doubles, it will be increases in home runs. If you were to stay away from Hamels it would be his arm issues that he is having and his notoriously fragile left arm. Where do you get that he has a fragile arm? The guy has never had any surgery of any kind on his throwing arm. He's had 2 short trips on the DL in his entire career, and he's pitched a minimum of 31 games in 6 of 8 seasons in the major(His rookie season he was called up in late May and he started in 23 games) Other than the freak accident in high school where he broke his arm I think Hamels has remained for the most part pretty healthy. Every pitcher is going to have their cases of a dead arm or some soreness, but no way can you even say Hamels is fragile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sacredheart Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 He broke his arm in high school, made only 4 starts in 04 because of elbow tendinitis, broke his hand in a bar fight in 05 before the season started and didnt make a start until July (which unrelated to to his left arm, his season was cut short due to back spasms). In 09 he missed most of spring and the start of season because of shoulder issues. Between 2011 and 2012 seasons he had surgery on his elbow. So yeah, Id say that is pretty fragile. Most are surprised that Hamels hasnt missed a whole season yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoshotthefrog Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 He broke his arm in high school, made only 4 starts in 04 because of elbow tendinitis, broke his hand in a bar fight in 05 before the season started and didnt make a start until July (which unrelated to to his left arm, his season was cut short due to back spasms). In 09 he missed most of spring and the start of season because of shoulder issues. Between 2011 and 2012 seasons he had surgery on his elbow. So yeah, Id say that is pretty fragile. Most are surprised that Hamels hasnt missed a whole season yet. Thanks for the history lesson, but the guy makes 30+ starts a year which to me makes him pretty reliable. Until he misses significant time as a major leaguer then we are going to have to agree to disagree that Hamels has a fragile arm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I just know he went from 32 to 62 doubles given up last year in about the same plate appearances and with about the same number of home runs given up. That's worrisome. Guys were putting solid wood on the balls he threw. If you believe in the guy, play your gut. I have no intention to draft him at his current ranking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 wow, hamels really did get a shitload of doubles hit off him. up there with joe saunders. comparing the 2012 and 2013 lists, though, it's inconclusive. hiroki kuroda is in the top 10 in doubles allowed both years but was fine. jon lester is up there too, but i've always thought he's all wins and no WHIP. rick porcello is at the top for 2012 but improved in 2013, although not dramatically. saunders, sabathia at buehrle at the top of the 2013 list below hamels, but it still doesn't say much. i don't know. i also acknowledge it's a small sample size and i was too lazy to look beyond 2012. doesn't matter to me because i wasn't targeting hamels anyway. Article I read on Hamels also said that you have to look at the doubles leaders carefully because ground ball pitchers give up a lot of them, they just don't give up the 3 run homer. What you are really worried about is a balanced or fly ball pitcher who is giving up a lot of doubles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sacredheart Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Thanks for the history lesson, but the guy makes 30+ starts a year which to me makes him pretty reliable. Until he misses significant time as a major leaguer then we are going to have to agree to disagree that Hamels has a fragile arm. Well you did say that he never had surgery on his elbow, and he has had surgery on it. Article I read on Hamels also said that you have to look at the doubles leaders carefully because ground ball pitchers give up a lot of them, they just don't give up the 3 run homer. What you are really worried about is a balanced or fly ball pitcher who is giving up a lot of doubles. Did you look at who his outfielders were when they were chasing balls in the gap? He went from having a decent OF until last year where they were all pretty much slow footed poor defenders. A major league pitcher seeing his doubles spike in one year when everything else (not counting W since he had some of the worst run support) was in line with his career is nothing to worry about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 If you don't believe in the doubles theory, fine. But there are a ton of fantasy experts who hype players that hit a lot of doubles as sleepers. The idea is pretty simple -- you can be off at the plate and hit a single, but you have to hit the ball hard to get a double (99% of the time). Give up enough hard hit balls, and eventually they start leaving the park. Here is the article: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/pitching-by-the-numbers--double-trouble-002753548.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sacredheart Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Oh I believe in it as a young hitter in his late teens early 20s that show his power potential, but to say that it works for pitchers I just dont agree with. He isnt throwing to just prospects. If his line drive rate, babip, fip, all went up then Id say that there was something to that theory, but just one outlier from a small sample (we are talking 62 hits here) just doesnt prove anything to worry about yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chamb117 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 so i agree with both sides, because such an alarming leap in doubles would worry me, and i think the doubles theory has merit. however, when i look at his slugging percentage allowed, or even OBP or OPS, it's not the worst of his career, and the OPS is right in the middle. it was the lowest HR% and highest LD% of his career, so that explains a lot. it was also the highest XBH% of his career, but the difference is less crazy if you look at his stats historically rather than the latest two-year window. my first thought was to look at his velocity thinking it went down but it was actually 2nd-best of his career. still, batters crushed it, according to PITCHf/x. meanwhile his changeup was filthy. but even year-to-year pitch values are really volatile; his 2009 fastball sucked and his 2010 fastball killed. there's just too much variance. as with all indicators though you can't just accept a single one as the gospel. it's simply a red flag. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Yup. Exactly what I'm thinking too. I'd take the guy, but someone else will do it earlier than I will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paintedinexile Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Really bummed about Miguel Sano having to have Tommy John surgery. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I've settled into Kershaw #4 (assuming 1, 2, 3 is Trout - Cabby - Goldy) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chamb117 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 rajai davis has gone largely if not completely undrafted the last two years, yet finished 100th and 112th on the espn player rater. now that dirks is going under the knife, davis looks all the more compelling. hoping he still gets overlooked. even if he's platooned i'm still targeting him as cheap steals. tristan cockcroft said his lefty/righty splits are really disparate but his slash line against righties isn't that bad, certainly good enough for him to hold his own in left field by himself, especially if he can be a spark plug in the base paths. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I don't think he really has anyone pushing him for playing time (Donny Kelly maybe?) I'd like to own him. Even if he hits 9th, he will come up with something like Kinsler/Hunter/Cabrera/Vmart behind him. If he leads off sometimes, even better. Imagine trying to pitch to Cabrera AND worry about holding Davis on first. Pitchers head is going to explode. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Braun is on fire this spring. Small sample size, but given his pedigree over the last 6 years or so, 7/8 with 2 dingers and 2 walks is definitely going to make people interested in him. Playing like he has something to prove! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I guess people were always interested in him, but it's gonna shine a spotlight on him. I know we went through the whole "spring stats mean nothing" conversation but if there was anyone who could really move the needle based on a hot spring, it's him. So much uncertainty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sacredheart Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Does little for me, just makes me think 'he found a drug that doesnt show up yet". Considering his ties with a company that was known to find ones that would be undectable, I just assume that. If he would be open and honest about it and not vague and not wanting to talk about it then he might get the benefit of the doubt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 oh ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 do you need some tin for your hat? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lemongoat Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Count me in on the side that he's still juicing. Why would anyone believe he isn't? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Cole Hamels has "arm fatigue", doubtful he'll pitch at all in April. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sacredheart Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 do you need some tin for your hat? Can you be any more up his ass? Dude has lied to everyone the past three years, including his team, business partners and family, he has accused people of being racist to prove he didnt juice, and yet you still believe everything that comes out of his mouth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 so you do need some tin? or no? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoshotthefrog Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I'm still a fan of Braun's and i could give two shits about him using PED's or anything else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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