chamb117 Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 I know its crazy early but Freeman has to be getting some all star love this year. In ten games he's batting: .400 avg, .500 OBP, .657 SLG, 1.157 OPS. regression pending... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catalinacaper Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Except he hit 3/5 again tonight with a home run. Obviously his average will fall but he is going to be a >.310 hitter again this season. His confidence is crazy high now. He was quoted by Chipper the other night basically saying that pitchers don't have a pitch to get him out. Also, has anyone seen video of Harper's bunt singles he has been putting down lately? He's done it a couple times in the last few games and they are beautiful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 I believe n Freeman but he's also a .289 career hitter. Wouldn't say he's a lock for .310+. Regression police were all over him coming into this year. I'd say lock for .290+, but not like that is anything to scoff at... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catalinacaper Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 He had one "down" year in 2012 but has increased his RBI, BB, OBP, SLG and OPS every season while striking out less each year. Not to mention he was hitting almost .500 with RISP for most of last season. What miffs me most is people trying to compare him to a guy like Nick Swisher because of his power numbers. Yeah, he won't hit 30 in a season consistently (or hasn't shown it) but he sees the ball much better and hits to all fields better than Swisher. Something BABIP or LineDrive% can't tell you is if a guy is hitting into the empty spot on the infield (because they consistently play him as a pull hitter). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KennyFuckingPowers Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 I left my house last night to get food when we went up 6-3. Only to get back at my buddies house at 1:30 and see the game was still on. I cant believe the Mets are actually hanging with good teams right now (minus the Nationals.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lemongoat Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 He had one "down" year in 2012 but has increased his RBI, BB, OBP, SLG and OPS every season while striking out less each year. Not to mention he was hitting almost .500 with RISP for most of last season. What miffs me most is people trying to compare him to a guy like Nick Swisher because of his power numbers. Yeah, he won't hit 30 in a season consistently (or hasn't shown it) but he sees the ball much better and hits to all fields better than Swisher. Something BABIP or LineDrive% can't tell you is if a guy is hitting into the empty spot on the infield (because they consistently play him as a pull hitter). That's exactly what BABIP tells you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catalinacaper Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Not exclusively. I meant if he's doing it on purpose not just that he happens to hit it there. Let me clarify. He's hitting >.400 on balls put into play on his pull side, that can't be entirely explained by "lucky" BABIP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chamb117 Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 i think his 2011 batting average is exactly what you can expect from him. a .330 BABip for a guy who likes to hits home runs, pounds the gaps and can't run for shit sounds about right. saying 2012 is a "down" year is silly if you're ignoring the fact that 2013 was an "up" year. i think he could be a .300 hitter but at the expense of his power. last year he looked a lot like allen craig with his line drives and high batting average. he looks a lot like that right now again. so it's possible. but then he certainly won't hit 30 home runs anytime soon. but i'm in the camp that think he's a .285 hitter. also i think you're trying to make the case that he can hit the ball wherever he wants. he certainly has the ability to hit to both sides when he wants to, but to say his high batting average is an innate ability to put the ball exactly where he wants it to be is absurd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lemongoat Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Not exclusively. I meant if he's doing it on purpose not just that he happens to hit it there. Let me clarify. He's hitting >.400 on balls put into play on his pull side, that can't be entirely explained by "lucky" BABIP It absolutely can. What's he at, 40 at bats? I can see him consciously trying and maybe somewhat succeeding to go oppo to beat a shift. If that continues to happen teams will get the information and adjust accordingly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catalinacaper Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 It absolutely can. What's he at, 40 at bats? I can see him consciously trying and maybe somewhat succeeding to go oppo to beat a shift. If that continues to happen teams will get the information and adjust accordingly. That was last year not the current season. I suppose we will see this season and maybe I'll eat my words. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sacredheart Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 You are missing the point that Utley is beating him in most categories this season, but no one is expecting Utley to lead the league in OBP and hit over .400 at the end of the season. Everything is small sample sizes still. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catalinacaper Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Not expecting that either. Just don't agree with the people who think he will regress that's all. Freeman another 2-3 with a HR, oppo double and 4 RBI. Just saying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sacredheart Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 You think that Freeman will be able to have another season with a babip of .371? In 2011 he had a babip of .339 which he hit .289 with. Even if you think 2012 was an abnormally low season for him, thinking that he will have another season of a babip that high, you gotta remember that his homers and triples were the same in 2012 and 2013, and that he hit less doubles in 2013. Maybe he is hitting opposite the shift which will keep his babip high, but soon enough teams will reset the defense against him and the cheap singles he added in 2013 and the start of this season will go away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catalinacaper Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 I think his BABIP will hover just above his career average and he will hit for ~.310 again. I get that you all don't see it statistically but I watch every at bat he has every game and it's just a strong feeling I have. I'm not asking any of you to believe me but I'm calling it, right or wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lemongoat Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 It's also easy to think a guy will hit .640 when he opens the season red hot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sacredheart Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 I think his BABIP will hover just above his career average and he will hit for ~.310 again. I get that you all don't see it statistically but I watch every at bat he has every game and it's just a strong feeling I have. I'm not asking any of you to believe me but I'm calling it, right or wrong. I'm watching every Utley at bat and while he is hitting .500 for the season and has 3 home runs in 10 games I dont think he is going to hit 45 home runs and have the best season ever. I know he will start having hits taken away, pitchers will approach him differently. It is a long season, and not one where you can get any real info out of 40 at bats. Ryan Howard hit an opposite field home run today and is taking more walks, that doesnt mean he has fixed his issue with breaking pitches on the outside, because that is how he always is when he is doing good, and then he struggles and it all comes crashing again. That is what the stats are for. Anyone can say that someone is looking great over a course of 25 at bats, but the stats are there to show how it will likely regress back to the mean over the long haul. It is the same argument of stats vs scouts. Scouts said Matt Bush would be the next Alex Rodriguez (even being the first SS taken number 1 in the draft since Arod) his stats on the field (as well as a terrible record off the field) proved he would never get past AA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catalinacaper Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 I love stats, I'm a chemical engineering grad student doing research that has a lot of emphasis on quantum mechanics and surface physics. I know how great stats are. I'm just really jaded by people who believe that they can predict anything with stats. You can fit your grandma under a curve. (Don't mean to sound any kind of elitist there, but I'm a bit burnt out on the argument at this point) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 So much fucking bickering over nothing, 2 weeks into the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catalinacaper Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 That's pretty much what goes on in here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Two weeks isn't exactly nothing, it's about 10% of the season. A guy hitting .400 right now is probably good for a 10 point bump in their end of year batting average even if they revert back to the mean from here out. Remember we are arguing about whether Freddie Freeman is a .290 or .310 hitter... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sacredheart Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 I dont think anyone is bickering but just taking different points of view. I'm not going Rybread style and busting our racial slurs if someone has a different opinion than me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catalinacaper Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 I find it comical that Chase Utley is also, conveniently a career .289 hitter. With a 30 point lower career BABIP (than Freeman). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Ted Williams had a higher batting average (.344) than his Babip (.328). You want to work out what that means Mr. Quantum mechanics and Surface physics? (I mean that jokingly...). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 I dont think anyone is bickering but just taking different points of view. I'm not going Rybread style and busting our racial slurs if someone has a different opinion than me. Never gonna let that one go are you? Taking everything as matter of factly as lebowski, I see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 9 straight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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