thebiglebowski Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 I love Derek Norris so hard. Could be a top 5 catcher in the league if given the PA's His major/minor league numbers in total almost seem to have a Votto-like "walks too much flavor" to them. Having an eye is great, but (neglecting the defensive side for now) you might be better off with a .270 BA and .300 OBP than a .230 BA and .350 OBP. Gotta be able to knock in some runs in addition to being on base for others and it's hard to pick up RBI through walks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 david ortiz, in case you were wondering, is still dat dude. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lemongoat Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 His major/minor league numbers in total almost seem to have a Votto-like "walks too much flavor" to them. Having an eye is great, but (neglecting the defensive side for now) you might be better off with a .270 BA and .300 OBP than a .230 BA and .350 OBP. Gotta be able to knock in some runs in addition to being on base for others and it's hard to pick up RBI through walks. Well, I completely disagree that there is such a thing as walking too much. I envision him as someone that could top .250/.350/.450, while being very solid defensively Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sacredheart Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 Well, I completely disagree that there is such a thing as walking too much. I envision him as someone that could top .250/.350/.450, while being very solid defensively I'll give you an example of how it could be a bad thing. Bottom 9th down by one, Hamilton on 2nd, Votto up to bat. Anything hit scores Hamilton with ease and ties the game. Taking a walk just gives Bruce the chance to strike out and isnt moving the runner up at all. Getting on base is great and walks are awesome, but there is a time to swing the bat and a time to take the walk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lemongoat Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 I'll give you an example of how it could be a bad thing. Bottom 9th down by one, Hamilton on 2nd, Votto up to bat. Anything hit scores Hamilton with ease and ties the game. Taking a walk just gives Bruce the chance to strike out and isnt moving the runner up at all. Getting on base is great and walks are awesome, but there is a time to swing the bat and a time to take the walk. You don't have to explain to me the thought process, I've heard plenty of Harold Reynolds in my life. The problem is that you're asking Votto to swing at balls. Balls are harder to hit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 The assumption is that the hitter is being too selective in terms of waiting for his pitch and taking strikes, not implying that they should swing at balls. Would you take a guy with limited speed and a .500 obp for your team if his batting average was .000? That's kinda the artificially extreme case, but it's just a theoretical. Seems like each .100 you add to obp adds about 25 runs overall (.400 obp will get you 100 runs, with speed maybe 120). So you would be talking about a guy (with .500 obp) who is gonna score 125+ runs but have what, 5-10 rbis on walks? That's not worth it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lemongoat Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 The debate very commonly though isn't swinging at more strikes, it's often suggesting that a player expand the strike zone. But who is this player that is taking strikes to the detriment of the team? I know that Votto is the poster boy of this debate, but he's all around better with runners on. The only number that rockets up his his OBP .391 to .454 - but his average goes from .302 career bases empty to .330 runners on. His K's only go from every 4.43 AB's to 4.70 but K rates go up with runner on anyways as a pitcher is more likely to be pitching for a strike out. As for your question, I'm sure those more sabremetrically inclined will have an answer for you, but I don't know. For the record, swinging at strikes results in contact 86.6% of the time while swinging at balls results in contact just 64.7% of the time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Seems like the stat of interest here is z-swing%, the percentage of strikes a player swings at. Supposedly average is around 65%. Looked up a few guys who are great avg/obp guys (Cabrera, Choo, votto) and they seem to have z-swing% of about 70% (so not that swinging at strikes is the only factor in being a good hitter, but just bring that up for context -- one of those stats where 5% is a large jump). Norris was at 60% most of his career. Jumped to around 65% this year, so maybe he is being more agressive and it is paying off. No one suggesting a player should swing at balls, but they have to go up there ready to attack the ball. If you swing at a few more balls by going up ready to hit but it also results in fewer taken strikes, that can be a positive. Just gotta be balanced. .230 with a .360 obp is not balanced. It's swing too far to the side of patience vs. Aggressiveness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lemongoat Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Seems like the stat of interest here is z-swing%, the percentage of strikes a player swings at. Supposedly average is around 65%. Looked up a few guys who are great avg/obp guys (Cabrera, Choo, votto) and they seem to have z-swing% of about 70% (so not that swinging at strikes is the only factor in being a good hitter, but just bring that up for context -- one of those stats where 5% is a large jump). Norris was at 60% most of his career. Jumped to around 65% this year, so maybe he is being more agressive and it is paying off. No one suggesting a player should swing at balls, but they have to go up there ready to attack the ball. If you swing at a few more balls by going up ready to hit but it also results in fewer taken strikes, that can be a positive. Just gotta be balanced. .230 with a .360 obp is not balanced. It's swing too far to the side of patience vs. Aggressiveness. But do you think a .230 hitter will actually raise his average by being less selective? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catalinacaper Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Kimbrel gave up a run. To Travis d'Arnaud. Wow. Also, Santana 8 IP, 3 H, 6K, 0BB. 88 pitches, threw his first 20 for strikes. Never ceases to amaze me how the Braves scout pitchers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lemongoat Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Kimbrel gave up a run. To Travis d'Arnaud. Wow. Also, Santana 8 IP, 3 H, 6K, 0BB. 88 pitches, threw his first 20 for strikes. Never ceases to amaze me how the Braves scout pitchers. Pump those brakes a bit Goldschmidt now 7 HRs in 23 AB's vs Lincecum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
travis Posted April 10, 2014 Author Share Posted April 10, 2014 Bummed about Hamilton, he was off to a hot start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 But do you think a .230 hitter will actually raise his average by being less selective? Yes. I think you can be too selective to the point where you fall behind in counts and then are punched out (or forced to swing at bad pitches to protect the plate). The assumption is that a guy with a low BA but high OBP has this problem. I guess there is no way to be positive, but I think a low z-swing% is a very good indicator of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Bummed about Hamilton, he was off to a hot start. seriously, just cant catch a break Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lemongoat Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Yes. I think you can be too selective to the point where you fall behind in counts and then are punched out (or forced to swing at bad pitches to protect the plate). The assumption is that a guy with a low BA but high OBP has this problem. I guess there is no way to be positive, but I think a low z-swing% is a very good indicator of it. Yeah but just as often as you fall behind, your patience will get you ahead The idea of being patient is swinging at pitches you can hit and taking pitches that you can't. If you work yourself ahead in the count, your exponentially more likely to get a pitch to drive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catalinacaper Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Great stat of the day that's slightly related to your argument: Joey Votto has hit exactly .443 on exactly 443 first pitches he has swung at in his career. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Yeah but just as often as you fall behind, you're patience will get you ahead The idea of being patient is swinging at pitches you can hit and taking pitches that you can't. If you work yourself ahead in the count, your exponentially more likely to get a pitch to drive. You only talk about 2 of the 4 possibilities -- 1 You can take a ball (good) 2 swing at a strike (good) 3 swing at a ball (bad) 4 take a strike (bad). Do you disagree that too much patience can be a bad thing or just that Norris is not on that level? If it was possible through patience to only increase 1 and 2 and decrease 3 and 4, then yes, it is always a good thing. The problem is that you can't. 1 and 4 are positively correlated (when the good one increases, so does the bad) as well as 2 and 3. What exactly is the perfect balance probably depends on the type of hitter a guy is (you would expect a guy with a lot of power to be better off swinging more than a speedster, for one consideration). I'm sure someone has written an article about what the ideal z-swing% is across the entire MLB. My guess is that it on the order of 65-70%, but not sure if it can be hammered with more precision or split up based on player type. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lemongoat Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 You only talk about 2 of the 4 possibilities -- 1 You can take a ball (good) 2 swing at a strike (good) 3 swing at a ball (bad) 4 take a strike (bad). Do you disagree that too much patience can be a bad thing or just that Norris is not on that level? If it was possible through patience to only increase 1 and 2 and decrease 3 and 4, then yes, it is always a good thing. The problem is that you can't. 1 and 4 are positively correlated (when the good one increases, so does the bad) as well as 2 and 3. What exactly is the perfect balance probably depends on the type of hitter a guy is (you would expect a guy with a lot of power to be better off swinging more than a speedster, for one consideration). I'm sure someone has written an article about what the ideal z-swing% is across the entire MLB. My guess is that it on the order of 65-70%, but not sure if it can be hammered with more precision or split up based on player type. Yes. Falling behind is a negative, yes, but I'll take my chances with the positives. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMoosen Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 I dont know how to feel about Salazars outing last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chamb117 Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 I dont know how to feel about Salazars outing last night. hahaha. when i owned him last year, he had an outing where he struck out 9 in 3-2/3, but he only gave up like 0 runs and 4 hits or something so it was incredible. this, on the other hand... was impressive in so many ways it shouldn't have been Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catalinacaper Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Matt Williams really showed his inexperience tonight. Got completely outmanaged. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 What's the deal with Allen Craig? Killing me... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chamb117 Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 someone dropped craig in one of my leagues, which is a little drastic if you ask me. i snatched him up and will stash him until he starts to show signs of life. speaking of which, what's going on with edwin... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catalinacaper Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 I know its crazy early but Freeman has to be getting some all star love this year. In ten games he's batting: .400 avg, .500 OBP, .657 SLG, 1.157 OPS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 8 in a row Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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