¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 That is flawed logic though when you know another team will offer him a 7 year deal. You over pay at the end because you know you are underpaying at the first half of the contract. This contract is an absolute steal for those first years. If he wanted to go year to year and not have security of where he played/lived, he could do so and command close to 38 mil a year. he isnt going to be a free agent until after 2015, there was no rush to do an 8 year extension. you cant even say they are underpaying for the first half of the contract because the yearly breakdown hasnt been released. its not like they'll be paying him $20 million in 2016 and $40 million in 2023 when he's 40 years old... the difference between what he makes in 16 and 23 will be probably 5 million dollars. maybe. id say ask the yankees if the arod deal was worth it, but they've got more money than they know what to do with Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 There's risk in every contract -- Mike Trout and everyone else. Been plenty of examples. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 difference between trout potentially getting a 10 year / $300 million and Cabrera is that one is on the right side of 30 and the other isnt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I understand. I'm not saying the risk is equal, just that there is a ton of risk going long on any player, regardless of age. It's entirely possible and arguably reasonable (based on the talent of Miggy) that he produces like David Ortiz late in his career. I know the Pujols contract is going to be exhibit A in arguing against this contract, but I feel really confident that there is something going on there besides normal aging of a player in their 30s. I don't expect anywhere near that downturn until he crosses 35 at least. I think 10 years $300 million is out the window on trout. 10 years $350 at least, maybe more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl_ben Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Ick...I much prefer the Cardinal Way, good young talent. No need to over pay for old people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
travis Posted March 28, 2014 Author Share Posted March 28, 2014 I'm just worried about what this does for Trout's extension. If he wants 10 years at $35M+ annually he wouldnt be out of line asking for it at all. I think he might want a shorter deal of maybe 6 years or so for $180-$200M so he's set financially and can still be a free a agent before he hits 30 and can sign a 10 year $350+ contract. They should have just given him the 6 years $150M extension this offseason like it was rumored (if those rumors are true) and even if it would have had luxury tax implications this year it still would have saved they money in the long term with what they're going to have to pay him now considering what Miggy just got. I don't think this is the worst contract in baseball, it works for Miggy and works well for Detroit for the next 5-7 years and after that it will probably be a shitty contrct but at least they are contending now and and have th best hitter in the game locked up for the rest of his career. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I understand. I'm not saying the risk is equal, just that there is a ton of risk going long on any player, regardless of age. It's entirely possible and arguably reasonable (based on the talent of Miggy) that he produces like David Ortiz late in his career. I know the Pujols contract is going to be exhibit A in arguing against this contract, but I feel really confident that there is something going on there besides normal aging of a player in their 30s. I don't expect anywhere near that downturn until he crosses 35 at least. I think 10 years $300 million is out the window on trout. 10 years $350 at least, maybe more. Arod and Texeria are two other really long contracts that can be looked at, too, right? though Tex was 29 when he signed his 8 year/180 mil contract Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 MLB/MLBPA agreed on new drug agreement that goes into affect this season: 3200 unrine tests a season 400 blood tests 1st offense will be 80 game suspension 2nd offense will be 162 game suspension 3rd will be ban from game once youve failed a test, for every season following player will be tested 6 random times, for the remainder of their career theres more but those are the big points I saw, huge improvement Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Think arod is just a gigantic fraud. I'll buy Tex as a counterexample. Other good ones that have been mentioned (guys who were really, really good players into their late 30s) -- frank Thomas, Willie mays, Ted Williams, etc. Definitely feel better about going long on a power guy than a speedster (ie, Trout). The big Papi/frank Thomas type guys can still be awesome without getting a single infield hit or stolen base in a season. They just hit bombs or ropes and walk to first. I'd have to be confident in trouts bat minus legs to go 10 years at age 30. I do believe that speed really deteriorates in the mid-30s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
distinctlydustin Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Spent the evening watching the Astros and Rangers; Houston is looking a lot better this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
travis Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 Looks like Trouts getting an extension starting next year for 6 years and about $140M. Still the biggest bargain in baseball. So stoked for this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Solid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kamalatapes Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 check it ooooouttt. Sweet stache Tim #sosmut Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
distinctlydustin Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Nice. Derek Holland has the worst mustache in the MLB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Desmond had a cheese stache too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 think about this, when Trout is a FA at age 29 he'll be coming off a $33.25 million dollar salary. unreal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 The invention of the DVR has probably made what, a billion dollars for the players? Sports and news are the only thing anyone watches live anymore, so the commercials are so much more valuable. Would be interesting to see someone put together a mathematical analysis on the subject. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
travis Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 think about this, when Trout is a FA at age 29 he'll be coming off a $33.25 million dollar salary. unreal. I think the Angels wanted to lock him up for longer but he just wanted 6 years. Smart move by him. He's set for life in case anything happens and will hit the market in his prime, younger than Miggy is now when he just signed a 10year $300M deal. Trout could end up signing a $400-$450M deal at the end of this current extension if he keeps up what he's doing. I just hope that next deal keeps him here as a life-long Angel. They need to be competing for WS titles soon though or he'll leave for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
distinctlydustin Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Astros beatin' up on the Rangers again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Think it's kinda funny that people shit on the Cabrera deal due to his age and no one bats an eye at others predicting 40 million a year for Trout EIGHTEEN years from now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lemongoat Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 40 mil in 18 years will be the league minimum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebiglebowski Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 40 mil in 18 years will be the league minimum Echoing a couple posts ago, I think we are in a period of rapid inflation due to TV contracts but you can't extrapolate that indefinitely. At some point it will hit steady state (continuing to increase, but at a slower rate nearer to normal inflation). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catalinacaper Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Kershaw on the DL, you all spoke too soon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sacredheart Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Echoing a couple posts ago, I think we are in a period of rapid inflation due to TV contracts but you can't extrapolate that indefinitely. At some point it will hit steady state (continuing to increase, but at a slower rate nearer to normal inflation). You are on point. These contracts are fine now, but teams cant expect the tv bubble to stay at this rate, it is eventually going to burst, and some team is going to be on the hook for a Hamptonesque contract and not be able to afford it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.