rooks Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Lol yes we are all lying about the facts of mathematical probability because we want all the colored vinyl to ourselves. Jesus. Anyway, modernvinyl tweeted to stay tuned for a Halloween related announcement at 12 EST. Perhaps mondo? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl_ben Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Is it just me or would this thread be half as many posts with out rooks on it? (not that there is anything wrong with that) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooks Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Eh, ya win some you lose some. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest realtalk Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Lol yes we are all lying about the facts of mathematical probability because we want all the colored vinyl to ourselves. Jesus. Anyway, modernvinyl tweeted to stay tuned for a Halloween related announcement at 12 EST. Perhaps mondo? Well if 10+ people I know have EVERY TIME across multiple releases ordered 2 copies and EVERY TIME got 1 BLACK, 1 COLOR then I'd say it is HIGHLY PROBABLE that you WILL get the "randomly inserted variant", where applicable. Btw, you have zero FACTS about the probability of getting a colored copy because you have ZERO FACTS about pressing numbers. If you really knew about probability then you'd realize how INSANELY IMPROBABLE it is that 10+ people through all if the randomly inserted releases all get 1 color and 1 black. IF YOU WANT A COLOR COPY, ORDER 2 FRIENDS! REALTALK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timbrh2001 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 There is literally no way to tell from a colored or black Mondo vinyl. I've definitely heard cases where multiple copies were bought and all black copies were received. You could probably find that to be the case in this very thread if you go back into it far enough. Buying 2 copies certainly doesn't guarantee 1 of each, this much I'm 100% positive about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinch Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 I ordered two copies of Drive in one order when they went up on Mondo and both were black. BOOM! REALTALK DESTROYED IN SECONDS. blugel and turbobrando 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timbrh2001 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 I ordered two copies of Drive in one order when they went up on Mondo and both were black. BOOM! REALTALK DESTROYED IN SECONDS. Yep, I specifically remember there being cases with the Drive - OST since the pink vinyl was so highly coveted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooks Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Well if 10+ people I know have EVERY TIME across multiple releases ordered 2 copies and EVERY TIME got 1 BLACK, 1 COLOR then I'd say it is HIGHLY PROBABLE that you WILL get the "randomly inserted variant", where applicable. Btw, you have zero FACTS about the probability of getting a colored copy because you have ZERO FACTS about pressing numbers. If you really knew about probability then you'd realize how INSANELY IMPROBABLE it is that 10+ people through all if the randomly inserted releases all get 1 color and 1 black. IF YOU WANT A COLOR COPY, ORDER 2 FRIENDS! REALTALK. You are a dunce. Shelby 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest realtalk Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Again, if you guys really knew about probability, you would realize that the odds of what I said happening... are INSANELY IMPROBABLE if they were actually "randomly inserted". I'm not saying guaranteed because there's no way to check. BUT it is safe to say that it is VERY VERY VERY LIKELY that if you order 2, you will get a colored copy and a black. BUY 2, GET 1 COLOR, GET 1 black has worked for at least 11 people across many releases so its fair to say that Mondo does that. Some flippers will hate me for sharing this but the secret is out. Truth / Realtalk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest realtalk Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 You are a dunce. Why is that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooks Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 I'm not even going to explain it to you, I can't tell if you are an idiot by choice or that's just how you are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timbrh2001 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Again, if you guys really knew about probability, you would realize that the odds of what I said happening... are INSANELY IMPROBABLE if they were actually "randomly inserted". I'm not saying guaranteed because there's no way to check. BUT it is safe to say that it is VERY VERY VERY LIKELY that if you order 2, you will get a colored copy and a black. BUY 2, GET 1 COLOR, GET 1 black has worked for at least 11 people across many releases so its fair to say that Mondo does that. Some flippers will hate me for sharing this but the secret is out. Truth / Realtalk. Buying up multiple Mondo vinyl copies to get a variant isn't really a secret and it has been done for a while now. This isn't new information you're sharing. Not meant to sound harsh but this is common practice among the variant collectors and variant flippers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timbrh2001 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 There have also been cases where people buy 2 copies and receive both variants (though you'll see less people proclaiming that on a message board due to the fact that they don't want multiple people PMing them about it and the fact that it's likely going straight on eBay). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooks Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 It's a coin flip, except the odds are worse than 50% (that is a FACT). Will some people get two heads? Two Tails? A heads and a tails? The answer is yes. If someone flips ten coins could they get all tails? Yes. Is it more unlikely than any other outcome? No. Because every time you flip a coin it's a 50% chance, the probability doesn't change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest realtalk Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 There is literally no way to tell from a colored or black Mondo vinyl. I've definitely heard cases where multiple copies were bought and all black copies were received. You could probably find that to be the case in this very thread if you go back into it far enough. Buying 2 copies certainly doesn't guarantee 1 of each, this much I'm 100% positive about. I ordered two copies of Drive in one order when they went up on Mondo and both were black. BOOM! REALTALK DESTROYED IN SECONDS. Yep, I specifically remember there being cases with the Drive - OST since the pink vinyl was so highly coveted. And HIGHLY PROBABLE does not mean guaranteed. That is basic probability language which you should understand if you're going to discuss. If I have time, I will actually show you the math of how INSANELY IMPROBABLE that it is just chance that over 10 people all get 1 black, 1 color every time across multiple releases. i will do this based on rooks supposed 1/4 being color. And no need to insult me rooks. Your (and your cronies) misunderstanding of what the words highly probable/improbable means is very telling about who the dunce is. I won't expect you to understand the maths. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest realtalk Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 I'm not even going to explain it to you, I can't tell if you are an idiot by choice or that's just how you are. Idiot is unable to explain it because idiot doesn't have a logical argument. (You started the name calling btw) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooks Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 I explained it like 3 posts above? I think you are on a time delay. You're still wrong, but I don't care. Everyone can buy as many copies as they'd like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest realtalk Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 It's a coin flip, except the odds are worse than 50% (that is a FACT). Will some people get two heads? Two Tails? A heads and a tails? The answer is yes. If someone flips ten coins could they get all tails? Yes. Is it more unlikely than any other outcome? No. Because every time you flip a coin it's a 50% chance, the probability doesn't change. Haha. CLEARLY does not know what he is talking about. Dunce cap for you rooks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timbrh2001 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 And HIGHLY PROBABLE does not mean guaranteed. That is basic probability language which you should understand if you're going to discuss. If I have time, I will actually show you the math of how INSANELY IMPROBABLE that it is just chance that over 10 people all get 1 black, 1 color every time across multiple releases. i will do this based on rooks supposed 1/4 being color. And no need to insult me rooks. Your (and your cronies) misunderstanding of what the words highly probable/improbable means is very telling about who the dunce is. I won't expect you to understand the maths. What you're arguing is that if you buy 2, it's highly probable that you get 1 of each. I agree with that. It's not a guarantee though. If I were to guess what percentage of the total run are variants, my best guess would be around 1/3, not 1/4. That's just based off a generality from what I've seen people post over the time this Mondo thread has been going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gmoney Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Can you three take this to PMs? turbobrando, noalarmplanet and throwgncpr 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl_ben Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 It's a coin flip, except the odds are worse than 50% (that is a FACT). Will some people get two heads? Two Tails? A heads and a tails? The answer is yes. If someone flips ten coins could they get all tails? Yes. Is it more unlikely than any other outcome? No. Because every time you flip a coin it's a 50% chance, the probability doesn't change. Take a statistics class and try this post again...fail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooks Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 My bad, definitely explaining it incorrectly. My point was, and is, that buying 2 definitely does NOT give you the same or better chance than buying more than 2. Which I guess is the opposite of what I was trying to reason out above. Ah well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timbrh2001 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Bottom line, buying 2 copies is a probability (no matter how high) that you'll get a variant, as we've seen with examples it's not a guarantee. Can we all just agree with that and be done with this discussion? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lexicondevil Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 The probability of the random lp variant falling within a particular range of values is given by the integral of this variant’s density over that range—that is, it is given by the area under the density function but above the horizontal axis and between the lowest and greatest ebay values of the range. The probability density function is nonnegative everywhere, and its integral over the entire space is equal to one colored variant of a record. Derp. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbydrake33 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Again, if you guys really knew about probability, you would realize that the odds of what I said happening... are INSANELY IMPROBABLE if they were actually "randomly inserted". I'm not saying guaranteed because there's no way to check. BUT it is safe to say that it is VERY VERY VERY LIKELY that if you order 2, you will get a colored copy and a black. BUY 2, GET 1 COLOR, GET 1 black has worked for at least 11 people across many releases so its fair to say that Mondo does that. Some flippers will hate me for sharing this but the secret is out. Truth / Realtalk. I ordered 4 poltergeist. 3 of the jackets were damaged during transit. So naturally I open all of them and there is 1 clear. I put the clear in the undamaged jacket. And send the other 3 back. They send me 3 more and all black. So 6 out of 7 ended up being black. turbobrando and rooks 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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