The Mondo Records Thread - You think limited? Will sell fast?

[dreamover]

though your numbers are sound, aivc, there may be other variables at play. it's not guaranteed that the distribution is 100% random. it's very possible they have two piles and when people order two records, they're more likely to give them one of each.

 

if they actually have a machine that takes all the records and randomizes them, well then hey, these numbers could be very close to correct!

[Shitty Rambo]

You seem to think that I have more than 1 account and that if so that somehow makes me a coward? If I had one account you'd know me more intimately?

Nonsense.

You still are seeming to care a lot about me... why do you (and others) need to give me so much (unwanted) attention? I'm not asking for this.

I'm also regularly accused of trolling. Was I trolling here? No. Just trying to share that you are highly likely to get a variant if you order 2. When I try to back myself up or if I call people out on conjecture, misinformation or try to clarify, I'm often accused of trolling. I'm used to that.

Often the same people who I've had disagreements with in the past are the ones bring it up over and over again, while I have moved on.

Again, haters can please and thank you post in the Official Hate-on RealTalk thread.

Posting for this account has been disabled for the time being. Use your original one, or leave the boards. I'd prefer that you be banned, but that's not my decision to make.

[blugel]

Posting for this account has been disabled for the time being. Use your original one, or leave the boards. I'd prefer that you be banned, but that's not my decision to make.

 

 

daaaaaamn..

 

now how about some info on this Halloween release?

[gmoney]

Posting for this account has been disabled for the time being. Use your original one, or leave the boards. I'd prefer that you be banned, but that's not my decision to make.

Shitty. You're my fave. 

[Whip Wilson]

Yep, I specifically remember there being cases with the Drive - OST since the pink vinyl was so highly coveted.

This is of particular interest to me because all of my (admittedly spotty) memories of posts complaining about folks ordering multiple copies a receiving all black are from the Drive release as well. I myself freaked out a bit and ordered four copies desperate to get a variant and scared by the amount of hype for that release. I wonder if the theory didn't hold true there because so many folks did exactly the same thing, meaning more people than usual ordered multiple copies.

[dreamover]

seriously... wake me up when there's some news on that halloween release!

[Whip Wilson]

I'm bummed out this discussion about the variant insertion (giggity) got derailed with all the name calling because it's a pretty interesting thing to track if not inexact. That said, while realtalk doesn't have an ideal amount of tact or restraint, there are several other folks in here who are constantly baiting and trolling realtalk. I'm surprised and a little dissapointed to see them banned for that. Of course, I'm basing this off this thread alone so forgive my ignorance if I've missed something significant.

[Whip Wilson]

seriously... wake me up when there's some news on that halloween release!

Oh right! That's why I came here in first place. I talked to someone at Mondo today and they said that their understanding was that at least the next two releases, including the "halloween” release (not sure if they meant the film or the holiday, but I think we all believe they're synonymous at this point), would have worldwide distribution. Meaning that no one else had vinyl rights to the scores save Mondo. However, this person is a lower head on the totem pole so take it with a grain of salt. As you should anything you read on the internet.

EDIT: I mention this because there has been some chatter, here and elsewhere, wondering about Death Waltz or others having the rights to this overseas. As well as trying to help out non Americans to know if they'll have access to the release. Cheers!

[jerseydave77]

I suddenly felt a disturbance in the drama and was drawn to this thread to see RealTalk has been shut down. 

[Guest deathbydrums]

Long post coming, maybe this will help some people understand.

 

Realtalk, the problem isn't trolling. The problem is that you are saying buying 2 copies and getting at least 1 variant is HIGHLY PROBABLE. The words HIGHLY PROBABLE are key here. They imply a chance of more than 75% minimum which is what's making people disagree with you, because it's not based on numbers, but simply "10 people I know did this, and it worked, so it must be true"

 

Let's consider 4 possible variant distribution ratios: 25%, 33%, 40% and 50%. My bet is on 33%, but I might be wrong, so let's do the math for all 4. Again, the chance of getting a variant when you open each copy you get is always the same. What changes is the likeliness of getting at least one variant the more copies you open.

 

If the distribution ratio is 25% , the chances of getting at least one variant when buying 2 copies are 43.75%. Buying 3 copies gives you  57.81250%.

 

If the distribution ratio is 33%, the chances of getting at least one variant when buying 2 copies are 55.11% . Buying 3 copies gives you  69.92370%.

 

If the distribution ratio is 40%, the chances of getting at least one variant when buying 2 copies are 64%. Buying 3 copies gives you 78.4%

 

If the distribution ratio is 50%, the chances of getting at least one variant when buying 2 copies are 75%. Buying 3 copies gives you 87.5%

 

So you can indeed say that, if the distribution ratio is 50%, the chances of getting at least one variant when buying 2 copies are HIGHLY LIKELY. Anything less than that and your wording of “HIGHLY PROBABLE” is wrong.

 

TLDR: Chances of getting at least one variant :

Variant ratio 25% :          2 copies = 44%                  3 copies = 58%

Variant ration 33%:        2 copies = 55%                  3 copies = 70%

Variant ratio 40% :          2 copies = 64%                  3 copies = 78%

Variant ratio 50% :          2 copies = 75%                  3 copies = 87%

I appreciate your respectful, thoughtful and on-topic response.

Better than rooks grade 6 level probability but, respectfully, your combinatorics is not correct.

You're forgetting to factor across all of the so-called "randomly inserted" releases that Mondo has put out. Figure out how probable It is that an individual would consistently get 1 black, 1 color for TRULY randomly inserted variants across MULTIPLE RELEASES... 6 of them (The Beyond, Deadly Spawn, Poltergeist, Drive, The Raid, Maniac 2013)

When you do that, you will see how HIGHLY PROBABLE is 100% correct, beyond the shadow of a doubt. Factor in the anecdotal of this happening to 10 people and there is NO QUESTION that it is HIGHLY PROBABLE that when people BUY 2 COPIES, 1 WILL BE COLOR.

Again, I appreciate your respectful discourse here and hope to hear back.

...Although I won't be surprised if you don't... almost nobody admits when RealTalk is correct.

(thanks deathbydrums for letting me use your account)

[gmoney]

(thanks deathbydrums for letting me use your account)

 

lol

[rooks]

And the charade continues your writing style is identical.

Also, I admitted I was wrong, something you should learn to do

[Guest deathbydrums]

Your writing analysis is as good as your math rooks!

LOLZ.

Love Realtalk (thanks again deathbydrums for letting me use this...)

...And rooks you didn't admit you were wrong, you backpeddled and made an excuse that you were "explaining it wrong" when you really had/have no clue.

LOLZ.

[rooks]

My bad, definitely explaining it incorrectly...

Which I guess is the opposite of what I was trying to reason out above.

Ah well.

? Backpedaling and excuses, eh?

Anyway... Here's hoping we get some release info. I'd really love to have this before christmas, but their shipping update blog isn't looking good for that.

[Guest deathbydrums]

? Backpedaling and excuses, eh?

Yes, backpedaling and excuses. You had no fucking clue what you were talking about and you're still trying to hint that you had the faintest clue.

Funny that you wouldn't admit it until someone else pointed it out... then comes the "explaining it wrong" excuse.

LOLZ

[rooks]

 

We are moving on to DUCKTALES next. We have a fun announcement regarding those pieces coming shortly. Stay tuned, but regardless, you should expect a shipping confirmation on these pieces before the end of the week, followed promptly by those who ordered Jay Shaw’s I DECLARE WAR.

 

We likely will not be able to get finished, but we hope to begin shipping Graham Erwin’s THE WIZARD OF OZ by the end of this week. After that, things should move a little more rapidly through the editions of SPY VS SPY and V FOR VENDETTA. Expect tracking for those next week.

 

After that we hope to get out CREEPSHOW, THIS ISLAND EARTH and THE LITTLE MERMAID in the same week, while we begin shipping TIMECRIMES posters and LP’s. With the exception of THE LITTLE MERMAID, we have all of these posters in hand, it is just a matter of charging through the shipping queue.

 

 

So it sounds like they'll be through to Manev's V for Vendetta print by the end of next week. Then they've got 3 more sets of posters, and the Timecrimes LPs to ship.

 

So, it sounds like Timecrimes is still 3 weeks out from shipping, and at least two (I think 3?) other sets of posters have come out since Timecrimes, so even if Halloween came out today and Mondo stuck to their schedule it wouldn't ship until the second week of November?

 

Bleh :\

[Guest Secular Haze]

Rambo?

[Shitty Rambo]

Rambo?

Just waiting for an Admim to pull the trigger.

[aivc]

I appreciate your respectful, thoughtful and on-topic response.

Better than rooks grade 6 level probability but, respectfully, your combinatorics is not correct.

You're forgetting to factor across all of the so-called "randomly inserted" releases that Mondo has put out. Figure out how probable It is that an individual would consistently get 1 black, 1 color for TRULY randomly inserted variants across MULTIPLE RELEASES... 6 of them (The Beyond, Deadly Spawn, Poltergeist, Drive, The Raid, Maniac 2013)

When you do that, you will see how HIGHLY PROBABLE is 100% correct, beyond the shadow of a doubt. Factor in the anecdotal of this happening to 10 people and there is NO QUESTION that it is HIGHLY PROBABLE that when people BUY 2 COPIES, 1 WILL BE COLOR.

Again, I appreciate your respectful discourse here and hope to hear back.

...Although I won't be surprised if you don't... almost nobody admits when RealTalk is correct.

(thanks deathbydrums for letting me use your account)

Thanks for the reply Realtalk.

 

Frankly, I would have liked you to include actual numbers and math in your response. I'm confused. What are you saying I didn't consider in my calculations ? 

If you're implying that Mondo knows which copy is or isn't a variant when packing, and that they specifically choose to give 1 black and 1 variant to orders of 2 copies, then you need to consider the fact that not all people always get one of each. Multiple users have said they ordered 2 copies and both of them were black. Others get 2 variants.

If Mondo doesn't know which are variants when packing, then it's all based on luck and probability, referring to the math I posted in my previous post. 

 

I think you're saying that, whatever the numbers are, your friends who have ordered 2 copies for the 6 previous random releases have all gotten one of each, which is a possibility, albeit small. How small ? If we use the 33% drop ratio, the probability of only ONE of your friend to not get at least one variant on the 6 drops when ordering 2 every time is 97.23194%. I will not do the math for the probability of all your friends getting at least one variant on all 6 drops, but let's just say it's close to 0%.

 

Now, if you're willing to give me something concrete to work with, facts wise, I would be happy to redo the math on all probabilities. It's easy math afterall. I'm just confused as to what you're saying, that's all.

[Whip Wilson]

Just waiting for an Admim to pull the trigger.

Don't. Suspend, but don't delete. There are way too many people here troll baiting for all the blame to be heaped on one person/two accounts. Heed your inner Rambo and take the smoother path.

Also, thanks for the shipping info, Rooks. Even optimistically, Halloween is over a month away. Bummer.

[jackholexxxx]

Don't. Suspend, but don't delete. There are way too many people here troll baiting for all the blame to be heaped on one person/two accounts. Heed your inner Rambo and take the smoother path.

[timbrh2001]

Deathbywish

[timbrh2001]

Don't. Suspend, but don't delete. There are way too many people here troll baiting for all the blame to be heaped on one person/two accounts. Heed your inner Rambo and take the smoother path.

Also, thanks for the shipping info, Rooks. Even optimistically, Halloween is over a month away. Bummer.

Does it even really matter? Couldn't realdeath just create a new username?

I wouldn't necessarily hail realtalk as any kind of victim though. Its one thing to be an active contributor to the forum and get in a disagreement with someone every once in a while, its another thing to straightup come on here all the time with an intent to troll. Ive stated a couple times now that I thought realtalk was starting to get a little better with actually contributing lately but in reality he earned his rep early with his 100% trolling efforts. Mods must have finally gotten fed up with it today because normally I don't think the kind of discussion that went on today would result in a banning. It is what it is, if realdeath does decide to sign back up for VC, hopefully he realizes his mistakes and works to correct them.

[noalarmplanet]

Jesus Christ this thread...also, all of rooks posts are read in Jake's voice. Its kind of hard to argue with Jake.

[Whip Wilson]

More the principle than anything else, friend. But I've said my piece and I'm happy with that. Back to burning calories on feeding my nerd box.