Thoughts from sellers about inflation situation?

[t198]

Apologies if this has been covered - I searched around a bit and couldn't find a discussion, but may well have missed it.

Just wondering about other record sellers' (stores, etc) take on skyrocketing wholesale prices, especially for UMG/major label/some big independent label releases.

Around a year and a half ago we began to balk at buying many titles that were no-brainers as they went from ~$13 to $18 in 6 months. A lot of titles we just do not buy currently, but thought we might sit it out and wait to see if they returned to normal.

Even with posts about pressing plants laying off staff, prices have continued upwards to prices I just cannot understand. Those major label catalog titles that were 13/15 then went to 18/19, are now 21/23, in spite of what seems like pretty signifiant weakening demand?

I always wondered what was really in it for the majors in pressing vinyl in the first place. Do they really need the $50 or $100K they'll make off a pressing of The Cure's "Disintegration" or whatever, when they are thinking in hundreds of millions in other areas of their business. So I guess this is the natural evolution, but I don't think the demand is there for $30-40 records after markup?

I used to have a small record label myself several decades ago and was curious what actual pressing costs are these days compared to then, expecting to find a huge increase in cost, especially with all the talk of overburdened plants, etc (now somewhat subsided, I gather). I may have misconstrued what I found in a cursory search, but prices seemed only a bit higher at the plants I found from prices of 20 years ago. 

Anyway, just wondering where other sellers are at with this, how they are processing they super-inflated prices. We are being very cautious and at the very least at buying titles at these prices.

Do you think prices will come down? Can you justify buying at these levels?

[nico]

Interesting information. For me starting to buy new records in the late 90's, I sort of slowed down the amount. When the price went from 15 euro to 50 sometimes now.

- I won't buy anything I haven't heard before, to prevent buying a dud release.
- If it isn't super limited and from a major label, I tend to wait for a bit and will pick it up in the sale that will happen. It used to take 2 years but now sometimes stuff comes up for clearance sale in a few months.

- Find a non-repress, which sometimes is cheaper when a repress drops.

It looks a lot like what happened when cd's became super populair, the major companies overpriced it and the bottom of the markt dropped out very soon helped by downloading.

Maybe something will shift for the vinyl market as well with overproduction of certain releases. It looks like they pressed way to many Adele and Abba records in recent  years. Our customers going back to other formats or not buying vinyl anymore, since the novelty wear of, especially for the people who collect vinyl and don't a record player anyway.

[t198]

8 hours ago, nico said:

Interesting information. For me starting to buy new records in the late 90's, I sort of slowed down the amount. When the price went from 15 euro to 50 sometimes now.

- I won't buy anything I haven't heard before, to prevent buying a dud release.
- If it isn't super limited and from a major label, I tend to wait for a bit and will pick it up in the sale that will happen. It used to take 2 years but now sometimes stuff comes up for clearance sale in a few months.

- Find a non-repress, which sometimes is cheaper when a repress drops.

It looks a lot like what happened when cd's became super populair, the major companies overpriced it and the bottom of the markt dropped out very soon helped by downloading.

Maybe something will shift for the vinyl market as well with overproduction of certain releases. It looks like they pressed way to many Adele and Abba records in recent  years. Our customers going back to other formats or not buying vinyl anymore, since the novelty wear of, especially for the people who collect vinyl and don't a record player anyway.

Yeah! I remember the late 90's/early 00's when CDs were getting up near $20 (USD, not sure what that would be in Euro but probably about similar) - I have seen a lot of threads like on Reddit of buyers griping, but was also curious to hear how any sellers are approaching the situation.  Similar to you, I got into vinyl b/c it was cheap and was always pretty strategic about what I bought. Thanks for the reply.

Edited November 2, 2023 by t198
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[lexicondevil]

As a consumer, I am buying less and less. I went from about 6+ a month to 1 or 2. The prices are way out.of control. The bottom is gonna fall put. This is from someone who was buying records back when they were 5.99 new. I honestly just stream shit.on Spotify now.

[t198]

51 minutes ago, lexicondevil said:

As a consumer, I am buying less and less. I went from about 6+ a month to 1 or 2. The prices are way out.of control. The bottom is gonna fall put. This is from someone who was buying records back when they were 5.99 new. I honestly just stream shit.on Spotify now.

Yeah, I don't blame you. I am curious how other sellers are approaching it, as (as I already said, I guess) the prices seemed too inflated 1.5 years ago, and the surprising thing to me is that they have kept going up even since then. One classic title we used to buy wholesale for I think $12.85 two years ago is now over $21 from the distributor. Very interested to see how this shakes out and being very cautious in what we buy.

[t198]

[deleted]

Edited November 3, 2023 by t198

[N8TRU]

My only concern is manufacturing costs will not decrease. Like it's been said here, I'm buying less and less. I now keep a list of titles I'm interested in that I'm not a die-hard fan of so I can keep an eye on sales and promotions.

[youspinmeround]

1 hour ago, N8TRU said:

My only concern is manufacturing costs will not decrease. Like it's been said here, I'm buying less and less. I now keep a list of titles I'm interested in that I'm not a die-hard fan of so I can keep an eye on sales and promotions.

The only thing that will happen here is the major labels will continue to kill physical products like they did with CD and their pricing. Supply and demand will take over and potentially go back to more realistic MSRP. The cost of pressing hasnt changed much, just that the major labels got involved and started marking up everything

[t198]

 

1 hour ago, N8TRU said:

My only concern is manufacturing costs will not decrease. Like it's been said here, I'm buying less and less. I now keep a list of titles I'm interested in that I'm not a die-hard fan of so I can keep an eye on sales and promotions.

As I mentioned (and maybe someone can fact-check me on this), a cursory search of pressing costs seemed to show that prices are still pretty low to press vinyl - like under $5 per piece with jacket for standard pressing options. Someone should correct me if I am wrong. Course there are lot of other costs for labels and distributors not included in that. But manufacturing itself does not seem all that high. Saudi was about to agree to increase oil supply before conflict in ME broke out - if things go in that direction, perhaps raw material price will come down and knock pressing prices down a buck or so. But pressing prices - it doesn't seem like they are what have created near-100% price increases (for major label releases at least). Indies like Dischord (who have increased prices only a bit) are still able to wholesale for under $12 shipped. 95% of major label titles are priced over $20 now, wholesale.

Edited November 3, 2023 by t198

[hallowken78]

4 hours ago, N8TRU said:

 I now keep a list of titles I'm interested in that I'm not a die-hard fan of so I can keep an eye on sales and promotions.

Such a simple idea yet not one that had occurred to me.  Totally stealing this.

[faaip de oiad]

5 hours ago, youspinmeround said:

major labels got involved and started marking up everything

They're treating the vinyl boom as a niche trend that may end soon(which it prolly will), giving them the idea to strike now while the iron is hot.

[Shitty Rambo]

15 hours ago, N8TRU said:

My only concern is manufacturing costs will not decrease. Like it's been said here, I'm buying less and less. I now keep a list of titles I'm interested in that I'm not a die-hard fan of so I can keep an eye on sales and promotions.

I could've sworn there was a thread on here a handful of years ago about "HD Vinyl" or some crap that was supposed to be a cheaper and faster new method to press records, but I can't find it now.

But like OP said, the pressing prices haven't skyrocketed. I always thought the fact that there are only a few plants in existence was causing all the major delays and mark-ups. It sucks some indie bands are charging $40 for a self released record via bandcamp because that's the going rate at Target. Like yeah, secure the bag, but don't overshoot the moon.

[faaip de oiad]

The cost of vinyl is actually the same as it ever was. It's basic math. The more we print, the less it's worth...

[Shelby]

Question: why is everyone saying the cost to press a record hasn't gone up? That's complete bullshit it's increased at least 3x in the last 5-10 years. A 12" release on black vinyl used to cost about $1-2 per unit now it's up near $5.

[Shelby]

11 hours ago, Shitty Rambo said:

I could've sworn there was a thread on here a handful of years ago about "HD Vinyl" or some crap that was supposed to be a cheaper and faster new method to press records, but I can't find it now.

But like OP said, the pressing prices haven't skyrocketed. I always thought the fact that there are only a few plants in existence was causing all the major delays and mark-ups. It sucks some indie bands are charging $40 for a self released record via bandcamp because that's the going rate at Target. Like yeah, secure the bag, but don't overshoot the moon.

Gotta remember pressing less copies is more expensive though. Paying the little guy $30 for an LP /100 or /200 is terrible for everyone but fair lol

 

[t198]

26 minutes ago, Shelby said:

Question: why is everyone saying the cost to press a record hasn't gone up? That's complete bullshit it's increased at least 3x in the last 5-10 years. A 12" release on black vinyl used to cost about $1-2 per unit now it's up near $5.

I don't think everyone is saying that, but I was, along with a question - please correct me if I'm wrong. But an increase from $1-2 to $3-4 does not immediately lead you to a $22 wholesale record, does it? When other labels are wholesaling for half that. Small runs like you cite being a bit of a different discussion IMO - being catered most likely to truly tiny artists with online followings (Bandcamp, Soundcloud). The prices I saw (I am trying to remember which plants I was looking at) were maybe $3 per piece for what I would consider to be small runs (500-1000).

 

Anyway, I don't begrudge anyone charging what they want to charge - this post was not about that. It was more trying to solicit (somewhat unsuccessfully) thoughts from other sellers about their appetite for buying at these prices.

Edited November 4, 2023 by t198

[Shelby]

19 minutes ago, t198 said:

I don't think everyone is saying that, but I was, along with a question - please correct me if I'm wrong. But an increase from $1-2 to $3-4 does not immediately lead you to a $22 wholesale record, does it? When other labels are wholesaling for half that. Small runs like you cite being a bit of a different discussion IMO - being catered most likely to truly tiny artists with online followings (Bandcamp, Soundcloud). The prices I saw (I am trying to remember which plants I was looking at) were maybe $3 per piece for what I would consider to be small runs (500-1000).

 

Anyway, I don't begrudge anyone charging what they want to charge - this post was not about that. It was more trying to solicit (somewhat unsuccessfully) thoughts from other sellers about their appetite for buying at these prices.

I don't like it but the ratio isn't any different. $1-2 cost = $11 wholesale while $5+ = $22. What is off? Major labels are still overcharging on top of that but there have been several comments completely writing off increased manufacturing costs which imo is crazy. That's literally the root of the problem.

[faaip de oiad]

In the ’70s, popular albums were priced around $5 to $10
$1 in 1970 = $7.93 in 2023
Without adjusting for inflation, everything seems like we're getting the shaft.
Key word here is inflation

[t198]

1 hour ago, faaip de oiad said:

In the ’70s, popular albums were priced around $5 to $10
$1 in 1970 = $7.93 in 2023
Without adjusting for inflation, everything seems like we're getting the shaft.
Key word here is inflation

It's true, inflation is the very topic. Yes, I know when you line it up prices are pretty similar. I'm not saying it's bad necessarily - just wondering if it's sustainable (since the situation has changed in other regards since 1970 - music is free or cheap, food is cheaper, but housing is a lot more, low wages much lower, wealth gap much greater) - wondering if sellers have cold feet, as buyers seem to. If buyers were snapping up $30-40 records like they were snapping up $23 records, I wouldn't be posting this. They aren't.

[t198]

1 hour ago, Shelby said:

I don't like it but the ratio isn't any different. $1-2 cost = $11 wholesale while $5+ = $22. What is off? Major labels are still overcharging on top of that but there have been several comments completely writing off increased manufacturing costs which imo is crazy. That's literally the root of the problem.

I wasn't thinking about it in terms of ratio, more of in a cost-plus way - I guess there's something to that.  That said, buyers don't seem to agree.