unknown pleasures Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't know how many of you follow the financial markets but the stock market both in the US and abroad has been abysmal this year. China is in economic free fall and oil prices have collapsed. New housing starts surprisingly dropped in December. And there's always a level of uncertainty in an election year without an incumbent. A lot of people are predicting a 2008-like economic recession. I don't know if these people are right or wrong (I dare not guess myself) but if we really do enter another "Great Recession" do you think the current state or vinyl collecting can keep up? I mean an environment where $30 single LPs is practically the norm, $40 reissues or cult soundtracks litter the landscape and every year (twice a year) Record Store Day does what it does. Throw in flippers, record collecting subscription services, Urban Outfitters & Barnes and Noble exclusives and you get what I mean. Just curious what fellow VC folks think... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 millennial hipsters will keep THE HOBBY alive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billya Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It picked back up when the economy started to head south, so I don't know. We'll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sciencekiller Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 As a Canadian, with our weak dollar, my buying habits have definitely changed. USPS rates have gone up as well. A $20 record in the States is over $40 in Canada now with shipping and foreign exchange. As few records are made in Canada, everything is imported. Distributors are paying 30% more, stores are then paying 30% more and ultimately the customer, with the same margins applied throughout. As the new prices roll out, I imagine there will be quite the sticker shock for a lot of people, and not many people are going to be able to continue to afford it. In Toronto the record store market is saturated and if the dollar stays around 65 to 70 cents for 3-5 years, I imagine a lot of them will have to close up shop. They all opened when the dollar was strong and records were back, people were loading up on all the stuff they missed. As new stuff comes out, it's going to be tough for them to maintain their sales levels. And when they close, I'm hoping I can pick up some things at their clearance sales. TheComebackKid, mpitts and dethrock 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GalacticMelt Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'll always collect it, no matter the condition of the economy. There will always be someone with a good deal, just gotta look hard enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidney Crosley Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The Canadian dollar is at its worst in 13 years. Couple that with rising shipping costs, and vinyl is becoming quite prohibitive, not only to buy online, but even many of my local stores are raising prices. For example, 18 months ago, one Canadian dollar cost $0.92US. A $20US record cost about $21 CAD. Now, with the dollar hovering around $0.69US, a $20US record costs $29CAD. But it's not like I make significantly more money than I did 18 months ago. I happened to get a raise due to a job promotion, but everything is costing way more (well, except gas). It's becoming a bit harder to rationalize too many purchases of records right now. I still buy, but I'm careful to look for good deals, and I haven't bought from an American label/website in about a year now. I think we'll see a bit of a slowdown, but by the same token, there will definitely still be money flowing. I think what might change is specifically who is buying records. The generation of boomers, mortgage-free and with excesses of frivolous money will still buy $5000 cartridges and not flinch an eye at picking up hundreds of dollars of records. I think it will be hardest for the post-college grads, who are struggling to find good work, and deciding whether purchasing a copy of a Blink album they already have on CD is worthwhile. TheComebackKid 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unknown pleasures Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 I agree with the sentiment that recent college grads with disposal income will prop it up, I just think if we start seeing that segment of the population have trouble finding work it'll start to make an impact. And it's a good point that things came back full force after the last time, but I dare say the state of record collecting in 2016 is a lot different than it was in 2006/2007. Klefki 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mourning Wood Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm a multi- multi- multi-millionaire and keep most of my money in cash, in a secret vault, which lies deep beneath my secluded compound, adjacent to my arsenal of advanced weaponry. I will always have enough money to buy all the records I want. WAXXX, jvphotoandvideo, MCDELTAT and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
74R Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I sure hope so. Then I can go back to scoring sweet records in dollar bins that no longer exists. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WAXXX Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 we will need to band together and hope our trust funds and low estate taxes help us keep the hobby alive. i don't even want to think about what the recession will do to the value of my vinyl portfolio. Shitty Rambo, plasma36, GalacticMelt and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasHawk Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Sorry, no. I collect more than just records, and despite the economic ups and downs of the last 10 years, the collectibles market really doesn't change. There is always enough of a segment of the populace with plenty of disposable income. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dvv Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm a multi- multi- multi-millionaire and keep most of my money in cash, in a secret vault, which lies deep beneath my secluded compound, adjacent to my arsenal of advanced weaponry. I will always have enough money to buy all the records I want.i-i-is..that you Martin Shkreli senpai? Klefki 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unknown pleasures Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Sorry, no. I collect more than just records, and despite the economic ups and downs of the last 10 years, the collectibles market really doesn't change. There is always enough of a segment of the populace with plenty of disposable income. I agree 100% but what I'm talking about is less the multi-thousand dollar Velvet Ungerground acetate sales - or even the hard to find White Stripes single for $100 - and more the practice of charging $40 + $10 for or the increasingly common bin-full-of-resissues-of-common-70s-rock-albums-on-180gm-vinyl-for-twenty-times-what-an-original-pressings-costs at FYE/Urban Outfitters/Walmart/Burger King or wherever. A nice rarity is always going to have value regardless of the economy or the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WAXXX Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 any experts here? i need to better understand the effects of the vinyl resurgence to calculate how much impact a downward trend of the S&P 500 index will have on the retail and secondhand value of vinyl. there has been speculation of a vinyl bubble, but as long as millennials aren't receiving $100,000+ loans from lenders to invest in their vinyl portfolios (to later be packaged and sold as high yield derivatives), then i'm not too worried about the aftermath of a bubble burst for the vinyl community. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dreamover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The economy is going to collapse and you're worried about your hobby? aopps42 and somethingvinyl 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hipsterasfolk Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hands down best thread in VC history! BRB grabbing popcorn! I always joke around in my firm saying that the vinyl portion of my financial portfolio is my second favorite asset Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Le Gogh Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm definitely not an expert in finance or any of that, but what I do know is that over here in the UK we have been in and out of a recession for a long while (they called it a "Double Dip Recession"), but things are now starting to turn. Interest rates are unbelievably low, and as a result house prices are shooting up and the pound is pretty strong against the Euro, and both USD and CAD. Through all of this RSD has managed to get bigger and bigger over here even when things were bad. My point is that I believe that people will always collect, regardless. Just that prices will fluctuate and maybe those that can't afford to won't bother, and those that can will. The other side of the coin though is that whilst things may be looking bad across the pond for you guys, I am getting some ridiculously low prices buying overseas compared to here in the UK. I mean I've ordered albums with international shipping etc that have been cheaper than buying from a UK seller. There are always buyers, especially when you think on a global scale... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agua Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 We'll just have to start stealing. Cpen5311 and VinylGyroid 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lexicondevil Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The record stores will have to expand their dollar bin section for the flood of random, perfectly mint, soundtrack records that no one really listened to anyway. There will also be a hunt for records that are actually black. "Not another haze, splatter, half and half!!!!" 74R 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hipsterasfolk Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 All I can add is Martin and I were spinning some Capn Jazz & PBTT vinyl the other week when I was in NYC, so the hobby is alive. Also buy all of my trade list! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freedumb Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Sadly, after 7 years of collecting... I'm out. Canadian exchange rate + USPS shipping makes it too costly. Telling myself I will make no further purchases this year with "new" money but selling off part of my collection to buy one or two essentials which will inevitably pop up. If the bubble bursts, I will be ready to swoop in and catch some deals and will continue to check discogs for my wants. I feel like I'll always have a turntable set up even if I don't buy any more records or much fewer from this point on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unknown pleasures Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 So the main theme I'm getting here is that record collecting Canadians are really getting screwed. aopps42 and lampwick 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoshotthefrog Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Not for me. i always make sure I have money set aside to buy things. Makes me thankful my parents taught me how to budget my money, and not to spend more than what I can afford. clerk3745 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mars Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So the main theme I'm getting here is that record collecting Canadians are really getting screwed. Yessir, undoubtedly. But the only thing that is going to end the hobby is the zombie apocalypse. Even then though, I'll probably still collect some sweet-ass variants to throw at those fuckers' heads, ninja-style. GalacticMelt and poweredbytrust 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WAXXX Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 i'm personally more worried about the effect global warming will have on my vinyl. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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